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Anthony Trollope. The End of the Party. When the Indian government demonetized its currency in a bid to root out corruption, strengthen the country's financial system, and promote credit growth see our post , the surprise move caused turmoil across India's largely cash-based economy. As commerce slowed and bank lines snaked on, speculation grew that Modi's popularity would erode and stall reform momentum.
However, Modi's popularity seems to be intact. Earlier this month, his Bharatiya Janata Party BJP won a majority in the key battleground state of Uttar Pradesh - an election that many viewed as a referendum on Modi's and the BJP's prospects for re-election in Corporate earnings have shown resilience.
While many companies did fall short of expectations, the most recent round of quarterly earnings announcements has been better than many anticipated. Not unexpectedly, consumer activity slowed in the wake of demonetization, taking a toll on consumption-driven companies.
Even so, there was good margin expansion in a variety of other industries, including those tied to infrastructure buildout - a focal point of Modi's economic agenda. Figure 1. Economic data already points to a post-demonetization consumption rebound. In the days and weeks following demonetization, concerns grew about the longer-term effects of the transition.
However, in our recent conversations with company management teams, we've heard many reports of a quick resumption in demand. For example, monthly sales volumes for passenger vehicles, two-wheelers, and commercial trucks support our view that many of the headwinds caused by demonetization would be short lived.
By late November, dealer traffic was already improving, and better sales volumes in January and February further confirmed the recovery in sales.